Migration panel - PROMESA
April 1, 2017
José B. Carrión III
President
Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico
Sent via e-mail: comments@oversightboard.pr.gov
Dear Mr. Carrión III,
I write to express my concerns with regards to the panel on Migration that was part of the 6th Public Meeting of the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico. Overall this presentation: (1) lacked demographic experts, (2) present data without any demographic framework and thus could lead to misinterpretation, and (3) was methodologically flawed.
On my letter sent via e-mail on March 18, 2017; I outlined the demographic implications of the fiscal plan and policies that would be enacted as part of the fiscal adjustment. It is concerning that the group that has control on the economic development and future of the island is being advised in the area of demography by persons who are not considered experts in the area.
Through this letter I will address some of the methodological flaws and the framework shortcomings of the presentation by Dr. Ilia Rosario Nieves and Prof. Elsie Ruiz Santana.
First of all neither of the distinguished colleagues have preparation in Demography. Dr. Rosario Nieves is a psychologist. Prof. Ruiz Santana is an accountant, educator, public administrator and lawyer. Lack of training in demographic methods and use of demographic data was appreciable through their whole presentation. Second, the investigation is a compilation of data, analyses and publications done by accredited bodies like the U.S. Census, Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics, and the Puerto Rico Planning Board[1].
The following are statements that need to be clarified for purposes of the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (from Q&A section).
Puerto Rico an unique case for Migration.
Profile of Migrants - the profiles generated by the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics are document of quality, self-explanatory and I attest to the quality of the methods used by the professionals who work there. I would suggest that the Board listens to those who produce these reports; they are the professionals who are prepared to explain trends, analyses and conclusions derived from these documents. These documents can be accessed free of cost through: www.estadisticas.pr
Data was “englobed” using 10 years - this methodologically unsound as the analytical guidelines for the Puerto Rico Community Survey clearly state that data should be analyzed using a 1-year, or 5-year approach. For the previous years (until 2016) data was also available for a 3-year approach.
Scholarly Profile - we should be careful when educational profiles are analyzed. Although it is true that the educational profile tends to be towards lower levels, it is also true that migration waves can have different profiles within themselves. One could be a negative selected population in terms of schooling and other wave (within the grander wave) may be of highly skilled/educated individuals. Caution should be exercised when conclusions are drawn from analyses of means. Again, most of these are addressed in the documents published by the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics. This was mentioned by the panelist but not in great detail. Another cautionary tale on educational profiles is the requisite to exclude persons under 18 or even less than 21 years of age as these persons are less likely to have completed their educational attainment. After age 22 and 25 education is relatively stable.
Who is leaving and who is staying? The Profile of Migrant is again the document to go, and the expert professionals at the IEPR who have training in demography will be able to provide not only individual documents but also discuss the trends they have observed through the production of these and all the reports they publish.
Monitoring of Trends - Puerto Rico PRODUCES information, this includes information on vital statistics (births and deaths), also the federal government provides information on travel volumes, and other estimates. In the past Puerto Rico has produced data (see point 10 and 11). But these efforts have been discontinued.
Do we depend on the U.S. Census? Yes, today. But not entirely, in the past Puerto Rico has produced its own data. The infrastructure is at the Puerto Rico Planning Board, Department of Labor, and the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics. There is no reason to say we are TOTALLY dependent on the U.S. Census, this has been the result of a structural step-back from government agencies that was more patent since the 1990s. During my time as a PhD Student I would read papers published in the 1960s-early 2000s, but no data was considered recent for 2013 when I started working in my dissertation.
Can we do something to have timely information? Prof. Ruiz-Santana answered that Puerto Rico would depend on the U.S. Census to collect data. I have addressed this in previous and points 7and will do so in 9; several publications from the 1970s and 1980s use what is known as a Ramp Survey. The latest ramp survey was conducted between 1991 and 2000 by the Puerto Rico Planning Board. These are monitoring elements, usually in a 5 or 10 question format given to each person living the island.
Ramp Surveys were usually sponsored by the Puerto Rico Department of Labor or the Puerto Rico Planning Board. The U.S. Census does not interfere in this process and the collection effort can be enacted, implemented, and monitored in Puerto Rico by Puerto Ricans. Given the technological advances such as tablets, and other technologies these could be implemented through the customs of Puerto Rico or at each gate in the airport. This is one of the many alternatives that can give us timely data as Mr. Carlos M. García asked.
I would refer you to the following studies that use data from past ramp surveys:
Angle, John (1980). What happened to the Percent Able to Speak English In Puerto Rico between 1940 and 1950? The Reliability of a Census Language Question. Caribbean Studies, Vol. 20, No. 1, p. 97-118.
Sandis, Eva E. (1970). Characteristics of Puerto Rican Migrants to, and from, the United States. International Migration Review. Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 22-43.
Senior, Clarence and Watkins, Donald O. (1966). Toward a Balance Sheet of Puerto Rican Migration. Published in Status of Puerto Rico, Selected Background Studies for the United States-Puerto Rico Commission on the Status of Puerto Rico. Washington, DC. Government Printing Office.
Melendez, Edwin. Changes in the Characteristics of Puerto Rican Migrants to the United States. Chapter 5 in Latinos in a Changing Society. Edited by Martha Montero-Sieburth and Edwin Melendez.
Some other data collection efforts - Non-inclusive of the work done on the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics data has been collected in the past. These include: Time Use Surveys (experimental design), Income and Expenditures Survey (Puerto Rico Department of Labor), World Values Survey, and many others.
Why do we have data until 2015? The U.S. Census Bureau publishes data with a one year lag and data is released on the second half of the year, this year data for 2016 is set to be released in September and October. This ensures that the data is of quality and is representative of the population. I am including two census contacts in the list of professionals I am sending and they will be able to answer any questions about Census release schedules and the reasons for this lag.
I would humbly suggest that you consult with expert demographers with regards to the future of Puerto Rico. The most respected Puerto Rican demographers who do work in Puerto Rico or about Puerto Rico in and out of the island are (in my opinion):
Raúl Figueroa-Independent Demographer who runs Demografía para Todos a Youtube channel that deals with demographic issues for Puerto Rico, he is also a consultant.
Ana Judith Montalvo- Demographer at the U.S. Census Bureau
Roberto Marrero-Cases- Demographer at the U.S. Census Bureau
Edwin Melendez- Center for Puerto Rican Studies
Alberto Velázquez-Estrada- Lead Demographer at the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics
Dr. Viviana De Jesus-Monge- Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Puerto Rico
It is shocking that while holding a panel on Demography the Board did not invite the only Demography School in Puerto Rico (UPR-RCM) or the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics. It should be noted that the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics is the body accredited to serve as a liaison with the U.S. Census for inter-governmental issues. Five of the six demographers I am suggesting are alumni or associated with this Demography program. Other expert demographers include Hector Cordero Guzman, Baruch College (City University New York) and me. Again some questions asked to the professors from the PUCPR by Mr. Garcia were about collaborations with the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics, which would have been better answered by those who work in that body.
I am therefore asking you and the rest of the Oversight Board to grant these expert demographers a turn in the next meeting and provide them with an opportunity to discuss 1) demographic outlook of Puerto Rico, 2) Expected outcomes based on current trends, 3) Demographic aging, and population monitoring mechanisms.